A Lucky but Random Walk

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So, I learned the evils of market timing/technical analysis/speculation the hard way--although thankfully it wasn't very painful at all. After world stocks started to tank a few weeks ago, I thought it would be a brilliant idea to sell my ETF in emerging markets, and then buy it back when the price bottomed out. Unfortunately, instinct overrode reason and I sold at about $61. I watched in sadness as the ETF's price dropped a tiny bit more and then rose substantially. There is a very strange human instinct that convinces one that it should be possible to "see" a "trend" in a particular stock based on its recent price history. Such patterns don't exist to any useful degree. So, just when I thought I had lost out completely, the international markets tanked again, and the ETF dropped to $60.48, where I just put in an order to snatch it up again and forget about my horrible original idea of trend-trading. Although paying capital gains taxes now rather than later means that I probably lose on account of this ordeal--even though I sold a hair above where I now purchased it--the value of this little "lesson" is undoubtedly positive in terms of preventing future losses due to my utter stupidity. Now I just need to find a good closed-end mutual fund...

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This page contains a single entry by Adam Anderson published on July 17, 2006 10:46 PM.

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