Sanity Check

Upon further investigation, my previous post may have been a bit too optimistic. While my reasoning was correct, I misjudged the number of InTrade markets on which I can successfully deploy my strategy. They do exist, and there are profits to be had with no risk, but they are not especially common. There are also ways to increase the profits my introducing a small amount of risk, in which case my scheme just becomes the same as a certain common investing technique.

Others tell me that it is possible to make a great deal of profit by simply trading off volatility in the InTrade markets for sports games. As my friend pointed out, this may be more lucrative on average than my strategy. Nevertheless, my strategy has the aesthetic advantage of being embarrassingly simple and risk-free.