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    <title>überfluss</title>
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    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2008-01-01:/uberfluss//2</id>
    <updated>2009-08-23T06:24:09Z</updated>
    
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<entry>
    <title>One Thousand</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/08/one-thousand.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1008</id>

    <published>2009-08-23T06:17:23Z</published>
    <updated>2009-08-23T06:24:09Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[Apparently this is the one-thousandth entry on this blog.&nbsp; Yikes, I must be getting old or something....]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[Apparently this is the one-thousandth entry on this blog.&nbsp; Yikes, I must be getting old or something. ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Lessons Learned</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/08/lessons-learned.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1007</id>

    <published>2009-08-23T05:05:08Z</published>
    <updated>2009-08-23T06:12:06Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[About a year ago, I initiated a new chapter in my long and depressing saga of blogging experiments by creating a new blog caffeinophilia.&nbsp; The question was whether a blog with a tightly-focused theme, unlike the ramblings here on überfluss,...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[About a year ago, I initiated a new chapter in my long and depressing saga of blogging experiments by creating a new blog <a href="http://caffeinophilia.blogspot.com/">caffeinophilia</a>.&nbsp; The question was whether a blog with a tightly-focused theme, unlike the ramblings here on überfluss, would attract a larger and more steady readership.&nbsp; The answer is a crushing no, and the results underscore the fact that content is irrelevant without a solid base of promotion.<br /><br />The new blog caffeinophilia contains reviews of coffee and tea shops from the perspective of someone who does not drink coffee.&nbsp; It is a guide to finding caffeine without coffee, particularly in Seattle, Chicago, and Portland.&nbsp; From this standpoint, it is a relatively unique site, but not one incapable of developing a small but regular readership.<br /><br />Yet the failure could not be more spectacular.&nbsp; Despite a flurry of posts during this summer, the site has attracted a mere 11 hits in the past 30 days, 4 of which were me.&nbsp; There appear two main reasons for this: lack of promotion and Yelp.&nbsp; Both are obvious, but the Yelp effect did not occur to me when I was originally creating the blog since it was before I became a regular Yelp user.&nbsp; Essentially, Yelp has eliminated the need for independent online restaurant reviewers, by having information on virtually every restaurant and coffee shop known to man.&nbsp; The user reviews are frequently of poor quality.&nbsp; Still, no one ought read my paltry collection of tea reviews when Yelp contains so much information.<br /><br />So what is the next experiment?&nbsp; I have been impressed with the success of <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/">Cosmic Variance</a>, a blog on mostly on cosmology co-authored by a collection of physicists, now engulfed by Discover Magazine.&nbsp; I also enjoy reading the <a href="http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/">Becker-Posner Blog</a>, although I occasionally find their entries repetitive.&nbsp; In particular, the use of multiple authors on these sites permits more rapid updating and multiple perspectives on the same issue.&nbsp; So, anyone want to start a new blog?<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Rhetoric Report</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/08/rhetoric-report.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1006</id>

    <published>2009-08-09T18:38:04Z</published>
    <updated>2009-08-09T19:16:23Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[One of the more charming reports off the news wire this week was Sarah Palin's declaration that Obama's health care reform will establish a "death panel" to decide whether to kill her parents and newly born son Trig.&nbsp; Various sources...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[One of the more charming reports off the news wire this week was Sarah Palin's <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g426GkD-vTsEj6z5wZHcBngGbjvgD99UBEF80">declaration</a> that Obama's health care reform will establish a "death panel" to decide whether to kill her parents and newly born son Trig.&nbsp; Various sources mention Newt Gingrich giving tacit support to Palin's remark.<br /><br />Palin's remarks and the general rhetoric in opposition to the present proposals for healthcare reform illustrate the astonishingly infantile state of discourse on this issue.&nbsp; Even someone who despises the current reform proposals cannot reasonably agree with most of the major criticism being hurled at the present bill.&nbsp; The general criticism being lobbed at Congress and the president, for example, is similar to Palin's: that government bureaucrats will ration healthcare and thereby decide who lives and dies by some sort of formula for social optimality, particularly targeting the weak and the elderly.<br /><br />Even if this is the case, I don't understand why this is valid criticism.&nbsp; Firstly, the government decides who lives and dies, who is worth saving and worth killing, all of the time.&nbsp; Nearly every EPA regulation is calculated, for example, using cost-benefit analyses that usually assign a value of about $7 million or so to each life.&nbsp; The reason why your drinking water has the levels of lead, copper, and mercury it does is because a government bureaucrat decided through "heartless" and "cold" calculations that it wasn't worth society paying to save a few extra people with more stringent regulations.&nbsp; Conservatives usually (and correctly, I believe) favor this kind of approach, so I fail to see why they now reject it.<br /><br />Secondly, it's not clear that a regime of "death panels" would be any worse than the status quo.&nbsp; Palin's concern is apparently for the elderly and the handicapped.&nbsp; But private insurance generally refuses to cover the elderly and handicapped in the status quo.&nbsp; It is currently the government who allows these people to live, and I am not aware of any features in the current proposal to significantly decrease coverage for such groups (though I confess that I'm no expert on healthcare reform).&nbsp; It's hard to understand why Palin would support a status quo in which the elderly would be summarily killed were it not for very costly government intervention.<br /><br />And finally, the opposition appears to lack any serious alternatives to the Congressional plan.&nbsp; This is the unfortunate consequence of having overwhelming Democratic control in the House, Senate, and White House.&nbsp; Without much ability to advance legislation, the Republicans' only incentive is to attempt to block everything and spread as much fear and paranoia as possible. This is not a reflection of any sort of intellectual or moral deficiency on the part of Republicans; it is simply the optimal strategy for any powerless minority in government.&nbsp; Any alternatives they propose can be shot down by Democrats, so their only option is to regain power by fomenting disgust with Democratic policies.&nbsp; This is the same way that Democrats overtook Republicans in the last two elections.&nbsp; The solution to this would seem to be to vote for centrist Republicans to rebalance Congress and restore their incentive to engage is productive discourse.&nbsp; With the likes of Palin, Limbaugh, and O'Reilly still having a stranglehold on Republican rhetoric, this appears a sadly distant possibility. <br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Work</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/08/work.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1005</id>

    <published>2009-08-07T23:28:26Z</published>
    <updated>2009-08-07T23:36:30Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[My latest conversation with my adviser for the summer was on the topic of graduate school and promising areas of research.&nbsp; I began to arrive at the conclusion that I should move in the direction of either theoretical particle physics...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[My latest conversation with my adviser for the summer was on the topic of graduate school and promising areas of research.&nbsp; I began to arrive at the conclusion that I should move in the direction of either theoretical particle physics or experimental particle astrophysics, with the latter likely promising the most fundamental discoveries in the near future.&nbsp; At any rate, I was amused when he digressed into pontification and remarked, "Physics is not like biology.&nbsp; In biology everything takes an extraordinary amount of time to test in a laboratory.&nbsp; Theoretical physics doesn't take much time at all.&nbsp; It just requires <i>quality</i> time."&nbsp; So theorists are just lazy?&nbsp; Or more to his point, they <i>ought</i> to be lazy from time to time.<br />]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Bob Lucas Strikes Back</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/08/bob-lucas-strikes-back.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1004</id>

    <published>2009-08-07T02:37:11Z</published>
    <updated>2009-08-07T03:33:20Z</updated>

    <summary>After years of bashing the neoclassicals, the likes of Krugman and his followers finally saw critical assessments of macroeconomics and financial economics appear in The Economist two weeks ago, including a personal jab at Mr. Lucas himself, Fama and the...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[After years of bashing the neoclassicals, the likes of Krugman and his followers finally saw critical assessments of <a href="http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14030288">macroeconomics</a> and <a href="http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14030296">financial economics</a> appear in The Economist two weeks ago, including a personal jab at Mr. Lucas himself, Fama and the efficient markets hypothesis, and arguably of the University of Chicago itself (or at least of certain "lakeside universities").&nbsp; Now the grandfather of modern macroeconomics retaliates in the latest issue's <a href="http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14165405">Economics Focus</a>.<br /><br />In part, Lucas's rebuttal is very correct.&nbsp; Economic crises are usually unique events with unforeseeable causes, and it would be hard to imagine constructing testable scientific models to predict them.&nbsp; The most reliable approach is to figure out ways of coping with crises when they appear, and the Keynesian and neoclassical prescriptions being carried out by Congress and Ben Bernanke appear to be doing their job.&nbsp; Lucas falls a little short by failing to provide a paradigm for economic research as an alternative to Krugmanesque abandon-ship mentality toward modern macroeconomics.&nbsp; And it would have been nice for him to provide a little perspective on how we might be able to better understand financial and economic bubbles, if at all.&nbsp; But it is nice to see someone defending economics for a change.<br /><br />Some <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/08/why-oh-why-cant-we-have-better-nobel-laureates-in-economics-robert-lucas-suddenly-bff-with-ben-bernanke-edition.html">critics</a>, of course, like to observe that some economists DID predict the economic crisis accurately, and they therefore retort that Lucas's belief in the impossibility of predicting crises is merely HIS inability to predict crises.&nbsp; But this is simply an unscientific viewpoint.&nbsp; There will always be models and people that predict crises correctly by chance alone.&nbsp; Accurate prediction of a single crisis should not be a source of credibility.&nbsp; What is needed instead are robust models that make consistently correct predictions under a known set of circumstances.&nbsp; If the models of Krugman, DeLong, et al. do this, then so much the better for them.&nbsp; <br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Meta-Discontinuities</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/07/meta-discontinuities.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1003</id>

    <published>2009-07-21T07:22:10Z</published>
    <updated>2009-07-21T07:45:27Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[I've been a bit mentally congested lately.&nbsp; I was making little progress on my research over the past week, I was bogged down by syntactic annoyances in Mathematica, and I had no idea of my next move in my work.&nbsp;...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[I've been a bit mentally congested lately.&nbsp; I was making little progress on my research over the past week, I was bogged down by syntactic annoyances in Mathematica, and I had no idea of my next move in my work.&nbsp; Suddenly over the weekend, however, after sitting around reading for a few hours--Carl Schmidt, no less--I became spontaneously inspired to work on my research, and within a day, I had solved my primary problem in Mathematica and figured out a way to increase the speed of my algorithm by a factor of ~1000.&nbsp; This is all well and good, but a natural question arises: why can I go for weeks with no good ideas and feel terrible about everything I do, but suddenly get weeks worth of good ideas in a period of 2 hours?&nbsp; It is possible that these kinds of discontinuities are a symptom of some mental deficiency that I possess.&nbsp; But if anecdotal evidence is any guide, then I would seem to be in good company with my learning disability.<br /><br />It is natural that good ideas should be discovered in discrete episodes.&nbsp; The structure of an idea or theory often hinges on a few details, and a muddled idea can develop very quickly once one of these key components is discovered.&nbsp; Indeed, this is the basis for Thomas Kuhn's interpretation of scientific progress as a series of paradigms punctuated by "revolutions".&nbsp; Data for a particular theory accumulates until key evidence reveals flaws in the underlying theory, at which point a new theoretical paradigm is proposed.&nbsp; Whether this is an entirely accurate description of scientific progress is a matter of some debate, but it is clear that personal research should go through some periods of fits and starts as key pieces of information are realized.<br /><br />But what is not clear to me is why progress should be so inconsistent, and especially why a person can make enormous progress on a problem without consciously thinking about it.&nbsp; For example, why did the solution to my Mathematica conundrum become clear while reading Carl Schmidt's analysis of parliamentary democracy?&nbsp; And why is my progress so irregular that I will sometimes go for days without thinking of any useful or interesting ideas?&nbsp; There must be some kind of subconscious thought process occurring... if only I could do all my thinking without actually thinking about anything!<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Hint Hint</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/07/hint-hint.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1002</id>

    <published>2009-07-15T18:27:02Z</published>
    <updated>2009-07-15T18:30:50Z</updated>

    <summary>Threats to by striking French workers to bomb their place of employment unless they receive better severance packages is a subtle hint about the effects of rigid labor markets and extreme job security....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[Threats to by striking French workers to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/16/business/global/16explode.html?_r=1&amp;ref=business">bomb their place of employment</a> unless they receive better severance packages is a subtle hint about the effects of rigid labor markets and extreme job security. ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Truthiness</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/07/truthiness.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1001</id>

    <published>2009-07-12T19:05:20Z</published>
    <updated>2009-07-12T19:09:47Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[One of the unanticipated perks of having a president who is a.) a minority, and b.) fetishized abroad is that he can say things that are true, but which no other president could have.&nbsp; Now let's hope he actually acts...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[One of the unanticipated perks of having a president who is a.) a minority, and b.) fetishized abroad is that he can say <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/world/africa/12prexy.html">things that are true</a>, but which no other president could have.&nbsp; Now let's hope he actually acts on some of things he says instead of just deferring them to psycho labor Democrats in Congress. ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Parameterizing the Precautionary Principle</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/07/parameterizing-the-precautiona.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.1000</id>

    <published>2009-07-09T05:47:47Z</published>
    <updated>2009-07-09T07:01:25Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[In Cass Sunstein's&nbsp;Worst Case Scenarios&nbsp;and Risk and Reason, and Richard Posner's Catastrophe, the authors grapple with how and when policymakers ought to fashion regulation and incentives to manage risks--especially catastrophic ones. &nbsp;Though mundane in the details, proper environmental, economic, and...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[In Cass Sunstein's&nbsp;<i>Worst Case Scenarios</i>&nbsp;and <i>Risk and Reason</i>, and Richard Posner's <i>Catastrophe</i>, the authors grapple with how and when policymakers ought to fashion regulation and incentives to manage risks--especially catastrophic ones. &nbsp;Though mundane in the details, proper environmental, economic, and safety regulations have enormous welfare effects: deciding whether the risks from global warming justify cap-and-trade, or whether the risk from arsenic in drinking water justifies a maximum mandated level of 5 micrograms per liter or 20 micrograms per liter, for example, are extremely technical questions in which real lives are at stake. &nbsp;Posner and Sunstein generally endorse cost-benefit analysis as a means of settling these questions. &nbsp;But alternative decision-making paradigms exist. &nbsp;One that carries particular sway in environmental circles is the so-called precautionary principle. &nbsp;This principle is stated in an extremely vague form that renders it useless and contradictory, which Posner and Sunstein recognize. &nbsp;In several off-hand comments, Sunstein tempers his rejection, but he does not give a thorough explanation of how the precautionary principle would practically be applied. &nbsp;I think, however, that it can be quantitatively specified in such a way that it can be used in traditional cost-benefit analysis.<div><br /></div><div>The first problem with the precautionary principle is its general vagueness. &nbsp;Stating that society ought to "err on the side of caution" with respect to catastrophic risks is useless because the relevant question is how much society should err on the side of caution. &nbsp;Certain risks are too improbable to spend time worrying about, and the precautionary principle does not give any indication of what risks we should care about. &nbsp;More devastating, however, is the fact that the precautionary principle is ultimately contradictory because there can be risks to inaction as well as action. &nbsp;Banning GMO foods to avert the risk of ecological interference creates the risks of food shortages and environmental damage from increased farming due to decreased agricultural productivity. &nbsp;The precautionary principle is useless in this situation. &nbsp;Worse yet, it is prone to rampant abuse, as every party to a regulation could claim to be justified by the precautionary principle. &nbsp;There is a significant literature on the other problems of the precautionary principle, so I will not dwell on this matter. &nbsp;But the point is that it is generally deficient.</div><div><br /></div><div>It is noteworthy that the precautionary principle appears to be very high regard in environmental circles. &nbsp;This is probably because the spirit of the precautionary principle captures a very intuitively appealing notion: risk aversion. &nbsp;Most people are risk averse: this is, after all, why insurance exists. &nbsp;Risk aversion is also not form of cognitive bias. &nbsp;Even with perfect information, people will usually be somewhat risk-averse. &nbsp;Given that a democratic government ought to somewhat reflect the interests and desires of its constituents, incorporating society's "average" level of risk aversion into cost-benefit analysis (CBA) seems reasonable.</div><div><br /></div><div>From this standpoint, one can view a regulation that eliminates one risk as insurance. &nbsp;From the usual two-state model, a person's willingness to pay for this insurance is simply the difference between his wealth in the better outcome and his wealth at the point at which his utility function equals the expectation value of his utility from the two outcomes. &nbsp;For a given degree of risk-aversion, willingness to pay is thus some function of the probability P and magnitude L of the possible loss, say W=W(P,L). &nbsp;In a similar way that standard CBA uses wage premia in risky professions to infer the value of a statistical life, one could use information from how much people pay for insurance to estimate the function W(P,L). &nbsp; In a standard cost-benefit analysis one could then allow the costs of acceptable regulation to exceed the benefits by N*W(P,L/N) in a population of size N.</div><div><br /></div><div>Granted, this process would be highly uncertain in the same sense that valuing a statistical life is uncertain: values cluster around $6-7 million, but range from $0.7 million to $15 million. &nbsp;Calculating the function W would also be extremely difficult because risk-aversion is very different for qualitatively different risks. &nbsp;Without delving into the complete details, we can say that any quantitative attempt to address risk-aversion in a social setting, however, is better than the vague handwaving of the usual precautionary principle. &nbsp;Moreover, this approach solves the problem that occurs when action and inaction each carry risks. &nbsp;Given the probability and monetized magnitude of each, one can calculate society's "willingness to pay" for averting each risk and then add this onto the costs and benefits from the usual CBA. &nbsp;Given how tenuous many assumptions in CBA are anyway, this proposition is probably not unreasonable.</div>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>Bioplastics: Fantastic or Fraudulent?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/07/bioplastics-fantastic-or-fraud.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.999</id>

    <published>2009-07-03T21:46:02Z</published>
    <updated>2009-07-03T23:16:15Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[You remember how it happened. &nbsp;You went to some chic Whole-Foods copycat, paid an exorbitant sum for some panini oozing in foreign cheese, and were about to eat it when you read that curious oxymoron on the plastic container: "biodegradable...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[You remember how it happened. &nbsp;You went to some chic Whole-Foods copycat, paid an exorbitant sum for some panini oozing in foreign cheese, and were about to eat it when you read that curious oxymoron on the plastic container: "biodegradable plastic". &nbsp;Once the part of the novelty of upper-crust retailers, bioplastics are now part of the mainstream. &nbsp;All of the University of Washington's disposable utensils, for example, are made of corn-based bioplastics that can be conveniently composted in one of the many receptacles on campus. &nbsp;But given that the public (and the farm lobby) touts ethanol (another corn derivative) as environmentally friendly, even though it produces more CO2 than gasoline per unit energy, I was left wondering whether corn-based plastics are really better for the environment than their petroleum cousins.<div><br /></div><div>Manufacturing and disposal are environmentally detrimental in an enormous number of ways, so it is often difficult to compare the effects of one material with the effects of its substitutes. &nbsp;Given the exigency of global warming, one starting point is to compare the carbon footprint of a kilo of corn-plastic with a kilo of real plastic. &nbsp;A little work on Google gives very wide range of answers, that seem to cluster around a 40% or so reduction in carbon. &nbsp;<a href="http://www.bioplastics24.com/content/view/1345/2/lang,en/">One study</a> says 42%, for instance. &nbsp;It is not surprising at all that there should be a wide variance in the carbon footprints of bioplastics. &nbsp;Much of the energy used in the manufacturing is in the form of electricity, whose carbon footprint per kilowatt-hour ranges from nearly zero (e.g. wind, hydro, nuclear) to very large (e.g. coal). &nbsp;This suggests that producing a fork from scratch out of corn instead of petroleum probably produces a modest amount less CO2.</div><div><br /></div><div>But there are complications. &nbsp;Realize that a lot of plastics are actually recycled, producing considerably less carbon. &nbsp;I had a difficult time determining a figure for the carbon savings from recycling versus new production, but some <a href="http://timeforchange.org/what-is-a-carbon-footprint-definition">sources claim</a> that recycling cuts the carbon footprint of a kilo of plastic by about 50%. &nbsp;This seems believable, though I wouldn't put too much stock in this figure. &nbsp;For disposable products like plastic cutlery, this puts recycled plastic on par with bioplastic. &nbsp;Depending on the energy source used in manufacturing, bioplastic is probably preferable due to the fact that it is more easily disposed of by commercial composting.</div><div><br /></div><div>What about items like plastic bottles that can easily be recycled? &nbsp;Conventional bioplastics are not recyclable. &nbsp;Contamination of ordinary plastics with bioplastics ruins the recycling process, potentially causing net recycling rates to decline. &nbsp;This is particularly problematic because it is often difficult for consumers to distinguish between bioplastic and conventional plastic. &nbsp;On the other hand, recycling rates for items like plastic bottles are fairly dismal anyway, so the compostability of bioplastics may give it an edge in disposability.</div><div><br /></div><div>From an economic perspective, bioplastics also present some problems. &nbsp;To the extent that manufacturers substitute bioplastics for recycled plastics, demand and prices for recycled plastic will decline. &nbsp;Recycling post-consumer plastic is already difficult/impossible to do profitably as detailed in a <a href="http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13135337">fascinating Economist report on waste</a>. &nbsp;Even a relatively small substitution from recycled plastic to bioplastic could severely undermine the plastic recycling industry, forcing it out of business or to rely even more on public subsidies that would be more efficiently spent on other forms of carbon sequestration.</div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, it is worth noting that bioplastics and regular plastics have two very different environmental consequences. &nbsp;One increases farming, which is quite bad for the environment. &nbsp;But the other increases petroleum production. &nbsp;It's unclear to me which is worse, but there is one remark worth making. &nbsp;Recycling plastic does not actually require any petroleum in theory--it only requires energy. &nbsp;So recycled plastics don't directly contribute to increasing petroleum production (at least up the recycling efficiency). &nbsp;Bioplastics, on the other hand, always require a farm to grow corn. &nbsp;From this standpoint, recycled plastic may have a lesser environmental impact as long as renewable energy is used in production, or as long as the amount of fossil fuels does not exceed to the amount used in bioplastic production.</div><div><br /></div><div>While I am somewhat uncertain of the relative environmental impacts of both types of plastic, it seems that bioplastics are generally superior for items like disposable forks that would never be recycled anyway, while recycled plastic is best used in products that have high probability of being recycled again. &nbsp;Like ethanol, bioplastics unfortunately will probably be touted by the farm lobby as part of their wildly successful rent-seeking enterprise to fleece the American taxpayer and immiserate third-world farmers. &nbsp;One should consequently remain skeptical about their environmental benefits, but welcome them in strictly disposable applications.</div>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>Contra Keynes</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/05/contra-keynes.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.998</id>

    <published>2009-05-13T05:52:50Z</published>
    <updated>2009-05-13T06:00:03Z</updated>

    <summary>Some commentators have been attributing the recent signs of economic &quot;bottoming out&quot; to be the effect of aggressive government policy.  The efforts of the Fed and Treasury to inject $1 trillion into the money supply and stabilize the banking sector--both...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[Some commentators have been attributing the recent signs of economic "bottoming out" to be the effect of aggressive government policy.  The efforts of the Fed and Treasury to inject $1 trillion into the money supply and stabilize the banking sector--both well under way--probably have played at least a little role in this.  But don't let the Keynesian proponents of the Obama stimulus plan claim this as their victory.  At The Times reports, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/us/politics/13stimulus.html?hp">less than 6% of the stimulus</a> money has actually been paid out.  One may be tempted to make the argument that the expectation of stimulus money to be spent is the real cause of stabilization.  But this argument is highly speculative at best.]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>The Frugal Traveller</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/05/the-frugal-traveller.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.997</id>

    <published>2009-05-10T00:33:15Z</published>
    <updated>2009-05-10T00:39:10Z</updated>

    <summary>While Portland&apos;s bad weather and excessive proportion of hipsters have undoubtedly contributed to its economic stagnation, they have also proliferated the good things in life: books, coffee, tea, excellent but cheap food, and fine beers and wines....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[While Portland's bad weather and excessive proportion of hipsters have undoubtedly contributed to its economic stagnation, they have also proliferated the <a href="http://travel.nytimes.com/2009/05/10/travel/10Portland.html?ref=travel">good things</a> in life: books, coffee, tea, excellent but cheap food, and fine beers and wines.]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Hope for the Rest of Us</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/05/hope-for-the-rest-of-us.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.996</id>

    <published>2009-05-03T14:37:17Z</published>
    <updated>2009-05-03T14:38:38Z</updated>

    <summary>Despite the gloomy conviction to the contrary that this university has inspired in me, there may yet be hope for the rest of us in our intellectual endeavors....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[Despite the gloomy conviction to the contrary that this university has inspired in me, there may yet be <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/01/opinion/01brooks.html?em">hope for the rest of us</a> in our intellectual endeavors.]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Free Wi-Fi on Southwest</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/03/free-wi-fi-on-southwest.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.995</id>

    <published>2009-03-30T00:00:50Z</published>
    <updated>2009-03-30T00:02:24Z</updated>

    <summary>Very interesting indeed, but painfully slow....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        Very interesting indeed, but painfully slow.
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Off the Books: When Currency Isn&apos;t Used</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/2009/03/off-the-books-when-currency-is.html" />
    <id>tag:www.appmagic.com,2009:/uberfluss//2.994</id>

    <published>2009-03-29T00:36:00Z</published>
    <updated>2009-03-29T01:57:41Z</updated>

    <summary>This afternoon, in my sick and feverish daze, I finished reading Off the Books, another one of Sudhir Venkatesh&apos;s fascinating accounts of ghetto life on the South side of Chicago.  This volume focuses primarily on the underground and informal economies...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Adam Anderson</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://www.appmagic.com/uberfluss/">
        <![CDATA[This afternoon, in my sick and feverish daze, I finished reading <a href="http://www.sudhirvenkatesh.org/books/off-the-books">Off the Books</a>, another one of Sudhir Venkatesh's fascinating accounts of ghetto life on the South side of Chicago.  This volume focuses primarily on the underground and informal economies that are critical to the subsistence of the urban poor.  Predictably, he extensively documents the drug trade, prostitution, and local businesses.  More surprisingly, however, are the very large number of in-kind transactions that occur between residents of the neighborhood.  In many cases, these in-kind and bartering transactions are for goods that would always be purchased with money in middle- and upper-class neighborhoods.  This is a shocking observation because it means that residents are losing the many welfare benefits of having a fungible currency.<div><br /></div><div>The benefits of currency are innumerable and pretty obvious.  Without currency, it is extremely difficult to save or invest.  A person can only acquire goods from another person if the first person has something that the second person wants.  Less trivially, a person who uses bartering instead of money has a more difficult time acquiring credit from formal institutions like banks.  The alternative is to resort to informal loan sharks who may physically abuse delinquent customers.  The list of benefits goes on and on.  Currency is unequivocally good, and excessive use of bartering and in-kind payments almost certainly has a depressive effect on the local economy of a neighborhood.</div><div><br /></div><div>The more interesting question, however, is why in-kind payments and bartering even exist in poor neighborhoods, when they are nearly absent from more prosperous ones.  One might naively surmise that even if people are poor, currency will still be used because the market price for a good will just drop to the point at which people can afford it.  If two people are willing to exchange in-kind services, there is no reason why that same transaction could not be monetized.  Given that few outsiders tend to venture into the ghetto, lower market prices could sustainably exist there (a ride to Midway airport on the 55 bus in Chicago, for example, passes many gas stations that sell gasoline for significantly less than in wealthier areas of the city).</div><div><br /></div><div>I have four possible explanations for why this phenomenon may exist.  The first is simply an observation that there is a special type of in-kind transaction for which money is simply unnecessary.  In certain situations, the act of person A allowing person B to perform a service for A is itself a form of payment.  The example that comes to mind from <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">Off the Books</span> is the shopkeeper who lets a homeless man sleep in his store at night to guard it.  The homeless many gets a warm place to sleep during the brutal Chicago winter as an immediate consequence of guarding the shop.  It would be pointless to monetize such a transaction because the service that A provides to B is inextricably linked to the service that B provides to A.</div><div><br /></div><div>Most transactions, however, are not of this nature.  A second explanation, which could apply to any transaction, is that money is not secure in the ghetto due to high rates of robbery.  Given the poor access to financial services like banks, storing wealth is more problematic than elsewhere.  But it is not as if residents of crime-ridden neighborhoods are robbed every day or even every month, so this seems unlikely to be the whole story.</div><div><br /></div><div>A third and related explanation is that since saving is less feasible and people tend to have a very small amount of money at any given time, in-kind payments are preferable for large transactions.  For example, if I need a new set of tires for my car, I may not have the necessary amount of money on hand, and it may be dangerous for me to save enough for it because I may be housing a crack-addict relative.  But I could give the car repairman a month's worth of lunches from my underground soul-food kitchen as payment.  As a busy man, this might be amenable to him.  This explanation works partially, but it cannot explain why the car repairman would not just accept daily payments in cash of the amount that I would get from selling my soul-food to someone else.</div><div><br /></div><div>The fourth and final explanation is the most complicated but much more interesting than the others.  Notice that if a good can ever be sold for X dollars in a free market, there must be someone in the community who is able and willing to buy it for X dollars.  So if a good is sold some of the time and bartered some of the time, there must be some people who can afford to pay for it in cash.  Also, we can safely assume that people will tend to prefer cash transactions over in-kind ones.  After all, you can buy anything with currency, while there are a lot of things you can't buy with your cooking skills.  The conclusion is that there must be a large fraction of people who cannot afford the market prices of certain items.</div><div><br /></div><div>This conclusion might seem stupid because we have assumed that these neighborhoods are poor.  But if everyone were poor and uniformly so, then the market price for goods would either be bid down to an affordable level or the good would not be sold at all.  Income stratification could produce this situation in which goods are sold half the time and bartered the other half.  If the good were a necessity, then everyone will attempt to acquire the good irrespective of whether they have the money for it or not.  If they have the money, then they create the cash price for the good.  If they don't have the money, then they create the barter price for the good. Alternatively, note that since the poor have little to no savings, the percentage variance of their net worth is enormous.  A street "hustler" may only have $20 on hand one day, but if he finds a shopkeeper who will pay him $100 to paint his store, his net worth has increased by 400%.  The result is that a ghetto resident might be willing to pay for goods some of the time (i.e. just after getting paid), but have to barter other times.  So even in a population with homogeneous annual income, if people have highly fluctuating net worths, monetized and in-kind markets for the same good can coexist.</div><div><br /></div><div>All of these explanations are likely to contribute to the existence of the non-monetized markets described in <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">Off the Books</span>, but it is doubtful that they can explain the entire phenomenon.  Whatever the cause, these informal, non-monetized markets are good examples of the enormous benefit that currency can have for human welfare.</div><div><br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

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